Paramount+’s $7.7 Billion UFC Bet: Strategies to Recoup Expenses

I’ve been a big UFC fan for years, but only splurged on one $80 pay-per-view (PPV) in the past – I remember trying to convince my wife it wasn’t too violent…until Conor McGregor injured himself. That was the end of my PPV purchases. Flash forward to now, and I, like many others, signed up for Paramount+ to catch Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett in January. That got me thinking – how many others like me are out there? And will Paramount+ make back its $7.7 billion investment?

Luckily, I have some insight to share – not only am I a UFC fan, but I also handle subscriptions for Penske Media Corporation’s publications (like Rolling Stone and Variety). This means I know a thing or two about what drives subscription revenue. So, I crunched the numbers and estimated that Paramount+ could gain 23.4 million new subscribers over seven years, bringing in $4.2 billion. That leaves $3.5 billion to earn from other sources. One interesting development to note: Paramount+ might end up owning Warner Bros. Discovery after a recent bidding war.

But let’s get back to the analysis. How did I calculate those 23.4 million new subscribers? I looked at past PPV buys (estimating them to be under 300,000 based on reports) and factored in core audiences and international viewers. Basically, I put on my UFC fan hat and my subscription expert hat to come up with this estimate. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out for Paramount+ in the long run.